Could Universal Turn the HD Format Tide?

Everyone's looking for a tipping point in the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD war, be it the latest sales figures, a sudden price drop, or the news that Blockbuster is essentially dumping one format for the other. But the factor that many of us are keeping an eye on is movie studio support: that is, which format will be the first to win support from all the major studios? If that's how you're keeping score, then Blu-ray may be oh-so-close to declaring victory, save for a lone movie studio that's standing in its way.

A recent article in Variety looks at the case of Universal, the last movie studio that's holding out against Blu-ray. (Fox, Disney, MGM, and Sony support Blu-ray exclusively, while Paramount, Warner Brothers, and New Line are releasing movies in both formats.) As Variety writer Daniel Frankel points out, Universal has a lot invested in the HD DVD side of the battle; the studio was one of the initial backers of HD DVD, and it helped develop many of the HD DVD format's interactive features. Universal's official company line is that it's sticking to its guns, which means that (for now, at least) Blu-ray owners can't watch, say, the Jason Bourne movies or the new "King Kong" on their players.

But what would happen if Universal changed its tune and began putting its movies on both Blu-ray and HD DVD? All of a sudden, those with Blu-ray players could watch every HD title from the big eight studios, and that could be the straw that breaks HD DVD's back.

"That could shift the dynamics [of the format war] overnight," says Richard Doherty, director of research firm Envisoneeing (as quoted in the Variety story). Doherty adds that while Universal is holding firm for now, it's almost certainly feeling the heat. "Universal may continue to place its bets [on HD DVD]. But if you want revenue, you put out what consumers want. And right now consumers want Blu-ray."

Well, do all consumers want Blu-ray? That's certainly an open question, and there are all kinds of sales and market-share statistics that point either way (indeed, most of the numbers show that DVD sales dwarf the sales of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs combined). Also, it may behoove Universal to hold out for as long as possible and maintain its leverage. But a Universal defection to Blu-ray would probably be a body blow for HD DVD—and maybe even the fatal blow. If Blu-ray suddenly had all the big studio HD titles at its disposal, I'd finally shell out $500 for a Blu-ray player, and I don't think I'd be alone.

Related:
Pressure mounts on U to turn Blu [Variety]