Handicapping the Latest gPhone Rumors

According to the latest whispers, the Google Phone will either a) launch in two weeks, b) be announced as more of a mobile platform than an actually phone, c) get the HTC treatment, with the first model due early next year, or d) all (or some) of the above.

It's getting tough to keep track of the myriad Google Phone rumors, and as the weeks go on, the tea leaves only get harder to read. So, as a public service, here's a quick betting sheet on the latest rumblings:

• The gPhone is coming in two weeks: This rumor originated on Indian Web site Rediff, and was immediately greeted with a chorus of scoffs (all carefully hedged, of course, in case it's true). The story goes that Google will launch the GPhone in two weeks, with a simultaneous launch in the U.S., Europe, and India. Google is negotiating with a pair of Indian service providers for exclusive rights to the GPhone there, while a U.S. release is waiting on "regulatory approval," Rediff claims. While media outlets big and small duly reported on the rumor, no one's managed to dredge up any more details, and Google issued its standard, "we-don't-discuss-upcoming-products" statement. Odds: 10-1.
• Google is developing a mobile OS, and leaving the actual gPhone to others: Here's a theory that's been bandied about for quite some time, and Engadget fills in some of the (purported) details today. According to this rumor, rather than building a phone on its own, the search giant is prepping a mobile Google OS, and it's working closely with phone manufacturers to put the platform on upcoming phones. Engadget shores up the rumors by pointing out Google's acquisition in 2005 of Android, a mobile OS maker headed by Danger (think Sidekick) co-founder Andy Rubin. An announcement of Google's mobile platform plans could be coming shortly after Labor Day, Engadget guesses. Naturally, a mobile OS would be a great way for Google to serve mobile ads—an enterprise that could be worth billions. Odds: Almost certain (for the overall mobile OS theory), 5-1 (for the timing).
• HTC-made gPhone will arrive in early 2008: CrunchGear says it has word from an HTC "insider," who claims that Google is mulling about 20 possible HTC makes and models for a first-quarter 2008 launch. The new HTC/Google Phone will have a "special" version of Google Maps, integrated GPS, built-in Gmail and Google Calendar functionality (which we'd all expect from a Google Phone, no?), as well as VoIP by way of Google Talk, according to the CrunchGear post. Oh, and Samsung might make some gPhones, too. Sounds plausible, especially given HTC's solid reputation and history in making private-labels phones (e.g., the well-received Cingular/AT&T 8525). Also, the rumor dovetails nicely with Engadget's mobile Google OS theory. Odds: 3-1.

Related:
Forget iPhone, the Gphone is here [Rediff]
Google is working on a mobile OS, and it's due out shortly [Engadget]
CG Exclusive: HTC Insider Confirms Existence of the Google Phone [CrunchGear]