Kindle could hit $1 billion in sales by 2010

The Amazon Kindle's reputation as "the iPod of e-books" really seems to be earned, defying all expectations to the contrary. One analyst has now doubled his sales estimates, figuring Kindle will sell a whopping 378,000 units this year.

The picture is rosier if, as the model goes, the Kindle continues to outpace expectations and sell like hotcakes: In fact, the base model for the $1 billion projection, money pegged to come in two years from now, is inspired by the growth of the iPod, which saw originally modest sales explode at a rate 250 to 450 percent annually over its first few years on the market. Can the Kindle do the same? If it's even close, that would mean Amazon would sell over 3 million Kindles in 2010 to hit the billion dollar mark.

Those are big numbers, and they aren't without some risk, and many gadget makers have fallen prey to dreaming big and basing projections on the iPod's sales growth. It's also important to remember that Apple innovated rapidly with the iPod and continued to refine and upgrade the device. In its first three years on the market, Apple released five distinct versions of the iPod, each a bit better than the last. Kindle is still clinging on to version number one, despite some clear flaws with the hardware that need to be addressed. Kindle prices will also need to continue to come down in order to encourage mainstream adoption.

Is new hardware on the way? CrunchGear says it is, as early as October, with not one but two new versions: First would be in a smaller form factor and a spiffed-up interface, but have the same size screen. The second would be larger and shaped like a piece of 8.5 x 11-inch paper instead of the oddly angled device available today. Also (allegedly) being introduced: Colors.

Stay tuned to see what Amazon does this fall.

LINK: Yep, The Kindle's A Huge Hit