Samsung says Blu-ray to be obsolete in five years

Thu Sep 4, 2008 11:29AM EDT

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A Samsung exec has put the first bet down on a death date for Blu-ray: "I think it has five years left," he says. "I certainly wouldn't give it ten."

Mind you: Samsung is a big player in Blu-ray hardware, so this isn't sour grapes over HD DVD or anything like that. In fact, Samsung is trying to push players big time this year and says 2008 is "going to be huge" for Blu-ray, noting that Samsung is back-ordered on product now.

If 2008 is going to be huge for Blu-ray, it better pick up the pace quickly. Blu-ray disc sales are still stalled at around 6 percent of the optical video media market and have been all year, selling roughly $7 million worth of product a week. (DVDs sell well in excess of $100 million worth each week.)

So what happens after five years? Something new could replace Blu-ray... but what? It's hard to fathom that a larger-capacity optical disc (with even higher resolution than the current 1080p standard) would be much in demand, as getting people to upgrade televisions that quickly to another (not yet existent) HD format that would support such a resolution would be a tough sell.

Is downloadable video about to finally make a breakthrough? Not in today's DRM climate. And what about ditching optical video altogether in favor of flash media cards?

Anyone placing bets or making predictions?

Comments on Samsung says Blu-ray to be obsolete in five years

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  • 1 Posted by dcsoccer25 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:39PM EDT Report Abuse

    Well, moving on to higher-definition video won't be something that takes hold very quickly. As it is, any higher resolution wouldn't really make that much of a difference visually; I doubt your average Joe buying a tv would be able to tell the difference. Different media formats are another thing entirely. I'd be all for flash media. Discs, no matter how well you take care of them, become scratched and unreadable.

  • 2 Posted by rogueist on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    I have always thought that flash media was the way to go, but nobody makes an omni-player that players any and all formats and is easy to upgrade to support new codecs as they are made. It would have to be a DRM-free open source item that would be produced - and without the DRM, Hollywood would not support it. Anyways, I still love my HD DVD player - still plenty of titles to buy. I dont even own a BluRay player but I got 50 free BluRay discs by buying my HD TV equipment... That's the only reason they won - by giving it away. BluRay is dead. It always has been.

  • 3 Posted by jirojas on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:35PM EDT Report Abuse

    On Demand video like Roku will be the next thing. Affordable instantaneous high-def TV right in your home.

  • 4 Posted by wolverinemarky on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    i doubt bluray will be dead in 5 years, toshiba and other companies are expanding bluray discs to hold 10 times what bluray holds now so i think it will be around. as price drops on the discs as well as the players it will boom, everyone needs to remember when dvds first came out they werent cheap either, they were fairly expensive compared to vhs. Also if you adjust for inflation I am sure that the current price of bluray is in line with what dvds cost when they first came out. so give it a little more time this holiday season will be the big test of how long it will last. if we see a boom in sales then i think its the start of what will officially be the new format taking over for regular dvds.

  • 5 Posted by alexkopp136 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:50PM EDT Report Abuse

    I think Blu-ray is also dead. The reason: price. Blu-ray discs are 1.5 to 2 times more expensive than DVDs. Yes you are getting better quality, but not enough to warrant that big of a price jump. Unless they start lowering the price on the discs themselves to be the same, or near the same as DVDs (like what they did with DVDs and VHS when DVDs came out), I don't think that it is a format that is going to catch on as the next thing. I personally would like a flash media design, with the downloadable content. However, in today's environment of ISPs throttling or cutting off service after reaching your limit I don't see that being a viable option either.

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