What now for the iPod?

Fri Sep 5, 2008 3:21AM EDT

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Come Tuesday, Steve Jobs will take the stage in San Francisco and, by all accounts and predictions, will roll out some new iPods, with lower prices and higher capacities. A bevy of news stories will erupt... and then what?

Well, everyone will forget about the iPod and go back to their iPhones, that's what.

The term you're looking for is "cannibalization." Apple had to have known about this since the iPhone's launch but that doesn't mean it planned for it: The whole point of the iPhone is that you no longer need to carry two devices and can listen to your music, complete with Apple's suave interface, right on your phone.

The problem with that plan is that for every iPhone you sell, you sell one fewer iPod. And since the iPod has been a true cash cow for Apple—the product is nearly universally agreed upon as the one thing that turned the company around and saved it from the scrap heap in 2001—giving up on that market is, at best, a seriously spooky omen.

In fact, it may already be too late for the standalone iPod: iPod sales are already flat, Fortune notes, and may soon be on the decline, a far cry from the recent days of double (and triple) digit growth.

And so it's up to Jobs to save things. Sources predict that he'll trot out a redesigned iPod nano (which rumor has it looks a lot like the nano from two generations ago), a minor refresh of the iPod touch, and a new version if iTunes with—gasp!—a music recommendation system. And as Fortune notes in far more cautious language, none of this is even remotely exciting. It certainly wouldn't convince me to trade in my iPod for a new one (and I'm still rockin' a 4G Classic!).

And that leaves us with the least refined tactic in the bag: Price cuts. Ben Patterson has predictions for pricing, and he's probably on the money. But will the nano still sell even at $200 for 16GB? I think Apple will have to do better than that if it wants to keep offering four different MP3 players. (That said, I doubt it will. Hubris runs high in Cupertino.)

Spill in the comments: When's the last time you actually paid for an iPod? And what would it take for you to buy another one?

Comments on What now for the iPod?

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  • 6 Posted by coolpal@ymail.com on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:29PM EDT Report Abuse

    I doubt everyone will buy an iPhone.... I completely agree that the iPhone sales are eating into the iPod sales, but that doesn't mean the end of iPods... especially as long as iPhone is coupled only with a single carrier and all the data costs it comes with... I bought an iPod just last month as a gift for my sister who will not need an iPhone, at least not with that heavy data plan costs associated with it. pal :)

  • 7 Posted by benjaminlee.turner on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:05PM EDT Report Abuse

    I bought my first ipod maybe 3 years ago. I actually have been in the market for a new one with a high capacity for the last month or so but I have been waiting for them to roll out the next generation. ...BTW, I own an iPhone as well but, 8 gigs is not nearly enough + I am not enthused about the battery life of the device when used as an ipod.

  • 8 Posted by rogueist on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    I am perfectly happy with my iPod Nano 3rd generation. It stores several hours worth of video and can play them back in HD on my HDTV - that's all that matters.

  • 9 Posted by eisosdesign on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:52PM EDT Report Abuse

    I don't think I'll ever buy another iPod. I have a 3rd gen 40GB iPod and it still works fine, with the exception of diminishing returns on the battery. My next purchase will probably be an iPhone, but only after it's offered through T-Mobile, has at least 60GB, 3G is fixed, and some accommodation is made for Flash.

  • 10 Posted by pfiedler21 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:08PM EDT Report Abuse

    i still have my 1G 4GB iPod nano. but im gonna replace it the the touch. 4GB is not nearly enough.

  • 11 Posted by arttransplant on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:58PM EDT Report Abuse

    I bought a 2nd generation iPod back in 2002 and someone gave me a 5th generation in 2006 or 2007. Both have been on extreme mountain bike adventures and have taken a beating - esp the 2nd gen. Even if I didn't have the 5G iPod there's no justification to buy another so long as I can keep listening to tunes. The great thing about the 2G is that it's a straight firewire connection - none of these proprietary docking units. Why buy an iPod when you can buy an iPhone. That's the future! If AT&T would stop charging $30 more for their iPod plans, perhaps I would be wooed to ditch my RAZR for an iPhone. Until then I'll duct tape my RAZR to my 2G and call it a day.

  • 12 Posted by sbwolves72 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:06PM EDT Report Abuse

    I was given an iPod photo (20GB) 3 years ago. I purchased the Ipod video 1 year later for business trips (30GB) as I am a movie buff. Then when my cell phone died on me I finally bit the bullet and got the 16GB iPhone. Each time I purchased one my timing was right before a refresh of the product...very annoying. All my iPods work as well as my iPhone, so, in order for me to purchase a new one, Apple would have to seriously drop the price on something as sweet as an iPod touch (it has the widescreen) as well as raise the space limit. I still use my Ipod video for TV shows, but could use a bigger capacity as my media library is huge.

  • 13 Posted by beachfront12 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:04PM EDT Report Abuse

    Until they are willing to support file formats such OGG and Flac they are going to become a second rate has been. Companies such as Cowan are providing better equipment with more features at cheaper prices.

  • 14 Posted by jweather73 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    Here's something you can do with the iPod and iTunes -- speed it the heck up! When you want to upload 80gb of files to an iPod, it takes almost FOUR HOURS!!! I can upload more than that in mere minutes on any other MP3 Player! Get with the program, Steve! Or as Garth would say "Live in the now!"

  • 15 Posted by ashilederer2000 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:58PM EDT Report Abuse

    The I-phone isn't the only problem. Every phone-maker has MP3-phones, which does not cost much more than a regular phone (like Nokia's XpressMusic, or Sony's phones) and these MP3 players are just as good as any I-pod (and they come with FM radio). But they also have a major benefit that the I-pod does not have: The owner does not have to carry around two seperate devices, and, more importantly, does not have to remeber to keep two seperate devices charged.

  • 16 Posted by pwdrskir on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:22PM EDT Report Abuse

    First: You assume "everyone" has an iPhone. There are more people without an iPhone that with. Second: Most would prefer a phone that also had MP3 capabilities like the iPod/iPhone, but due to "contractual obligations" I know I won't be switching anytime soon. Third: Those who have been using another "brand" of MP3 player (myself and many others), might now be interested due to price point and storage. I know I've been looking to replace my old MP3 player and this really sparked my attention. I'm sure there is a sizeable amount of people who have never used the iPod that will be more interested with the lower price point and their underlying need to be cool too.

  • 17 Posted by k5tws on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    If Apple is really serious about upgrading their iPods, they need to reevaluate the iPhone. I have had the option of buying an iPhone twice now. Both times I have turned down the offer. The iPhone is not the same as the iPod. Now, if Apple is willing to roll out an iPhone with a 80 gig hard drive....that might make me jump. The storage capacity of the iPhone is horrible. Unless you only like to listen to about 100 songs and have a few videos. The main reason I bought the iPod was for capacity. The iPhone simply does not offer enough space for music, video, pictures, games, and podcasts. Hence the iPod Classic 80 or 160. Now that is storage!!

  • 18 Posted by drewsmit27 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:48PM EDT Report Abuse

    How about a cheap, easy-to-use file server type device with high-capacity storage? This will let you store all your music on your home network that's accessible from any computer. I'm sure Apple can put a twist on it that will make iPod owners just HAVE to have it...

  • 19 Posted by emmarocks4@sbcglobal.net on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:54PM EDT Report Abuse

    i love i p[ods what is every one talking about this is soo stupid in my middle school 6/7/8 grades practacly everyone gets a new i pood every christmas! all they need to do is come out with something that can top the i touch/ phone

  • 20 Posted by alan_r_cam on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    The advantage of the iPod Classic over phones (and the Touch) is the immense capacity of the hard drive. Give it some more connectivity like Bluetooth and WiFi, and maybe the GPS while you're at it. Oh and for Buddha's sake give it a REPLACEABLE BATTERY ! Personally, I'd love to be able to hook my iPod up to my digital camera, and have it act as a massive storage drive - but I suspect that's a dream unlikely to be realised.

  • 21 Posted by hookemhorns5468 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:20PM EDT Report Abuse

    it's because EVERYONE has an ipod and isn't ready to replace it yet

  • 22 Posted by maori_yelir on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:05PM EDT Report Abuse

    I bought a Zune because the software is a lot better at just loading stuff on my MP3 player and not trying to sell me things.

  • 23 Posted by coolkyle4@snet.net on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:29PM EDT Report Abuse

    Firstly, i just got an 80gb classic atleast a few months ago, im not gonna get a new one anytime soon. Secondly, doesnt itunes have a music reccomendation service already? Its pretty bad at picking good albums, so yeh.

  • 24 Posted by dadeo@sbcglobal.net on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:34PM EDT Report Abuse

    Why buy an over priced ipod when other manufactuers (Creative, Microsoft, etc), offer more capacity, equal or better features for less money. I have a Zen and love it.

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