Is Blu-ray the new Laserdisc?

Next-gen optical format promises to revolutionize the industry with features unavailable to previous formats... but it runs afoul of corporate infighting, high prices, and consumers uninterested in changing formats. Eventually they decide, en masse, to stick with what they already know.

Sound familiar? That's what relegated Laserdisc to an oddball obscurity back in the 1980s, and it's an uncanny description of the current situation with Blu-ray today.

ZDNet's Robin Harris is now taking the bold step of calling Blu-ray "dead" and "in a death spiral," saying that in 12 months the format "will be a videophile niche, not a mass market product." While it may be early in the game to make such a prediction, Harris has some good points in his screed. Among them: That after its gruesome, 18-month battle with HD DVD, no one has the energy to care about high-def players any more. Probably a bigger issue: That upscaled DVD players, which can be had for $50 or $60, look almost as good as content played on a Blu-ray player. Consumers just don't see the value proposition in upgrading their hardware, particularly given that players are still over $200. What's a little better picture worth? With Blu-ray pegged at a four percent market share, most people seem to be saying not that much.

I've got my own problems with Blu-ray, having been giving it a fresh shot over the last few weeks. The player I have is a real pain vs. my cheapie DVD player. Startup time is ungodly, and I'll never understand why the player can't automatically figure out to play a Blu-ray disc if there's one in the device when it starts up. Instead it goes to an aggravating "home page" after a 30-second wait, and then it's another button press and another minute-long wait before I can get to the Blu-ray disc's home screen. Fast-forward and reverse is jerky and difficult to finely control, and that's a problem because I have to use them all the time due to the player's biggest annoyance: It doesn't remember where you were in a movie if you stop in the middle. If I quit at the 1 hour mark while watching a DVD on my bargain player, it picks right back up there the next time I turn it on. I understand that different model players will have different features, but this is standard on even the cheapest DVD gear. It's unfathomable that a $300 Blu-ray player can't get the job done.

Is Blu-ray dead? When people like me who have both units sitting side by side actively prefer using DVD instead of BD whenever they can, you've definitely got some trouble ahead.

Your thoughts?