2008 holiday sales definitely either good or bad

The numbers for which everyone's been waiting for with bated breath are finally in: Retail sales estimates for yesterday, the Friday after Thanksgiving.

Most outlets are reporting that Black Friday sales this year were up about 3 percent over 2007, to a total of $10.6 billion. And that's when it gets tricky, as that figure means things are either off to "a slow start" or "a surprisingly solid start," depending on whether you like the analysis of the pessimists at Reuters or those cheery optimists at the AP.

AP calls the data "strong" but cautions that revenues are up at the expense of profits, courtesy of price-slashing activities that got crowds into stores (with sometimes deadly results). The story cites a "tremendous response to discounts" but does temper expectations for the rest of the season, particularly noting that there are five fewer shopping days until Christmas this year due to the lateness of Thanksgiving.

In contrast, Reuters paints a rather bleak picture of yesterday, contrasting the 3 percent gain to last year's 8.3 percent rise and noting that, excluding inflation, you get no increase in sales at all. Reuters quotes customers as universally unhappy with the level of discounts this year (though many had previously felt they were extreme), and that the threat of upcoming layoffs was keeping most people from shopping -- at least for now. Reuters also devotes a good amount of space to the suggestion that prices may continue to fall as Christmas gets nearer... a tantalizing prospect for those waiting for that elusive, $99 40-inch TV.

So who's right? Well, maybe both: Both the pessimists and optimists seem to be caught in the middle on this one, as sales didn't plummet to the degree that many expected, and discounts didn't prove to be large enough to get shoppers into stores en masse. With 26 days to go until Christmas, we'll have to see if things improve from here on out... though Monday's stock market opening should be a strong indication of what likely lies ahead. Stay tuned.