Is it lights out for desktop Linux?

ZDNet's Robin Harris is taking a hell of a beating over his recent post entitled "Windows kicks Linux to the curb," where he posits that Linux completely blew its chance to become a mainstream operating system after the majority of netbook vendors dropped the free OS they were initially enamored with in favor of good old Windows XP. The latest statistic: In the netbook market, Windows now holds an 80 percent market share, which is astonishing, since it looked like it would end up with a zero percent share when the netbook market got its start.

This issue has been bubbling up for months, and it came to a head in October when netbook maker MSI revealed that its Linux-based netbooks were returned four times as often as its Windows ones, indicating that consumers were just not interested in learning a new operating system, even if it was fundamentally similar to the one they already knew. On the other hand, consumers have been flocking to Apple computers in droves, which would also suggest that Linux isn't quite as easy to use as many of its proponents would like... and that price isn't as big an issue as many had thought.

Harris is right to wonder what the next move for Linux is: If it can't make it on a platform known for being basic, simple, and cheap, what hope does it have down the line when expectations are higher? Windows 7 is looking good, runs well on netbooks (unlike Vista), and will be pushed far harder for that platform than XP has ever been.

Linux enthusiasts respond that, hey, compared to the OS's history of having a market share between 2 and 3 percent, 20 percent isn't bad at all. That still may represent just a toehold in the industry, but it's vastly better than it's done in the last decade. And for what it's worth, Microsoft isn't thrilled about the whole netbook market, either: It makes just a fraction of the money it earns selling retail copies of Vista when it sells a copy of XP for a netbook. Hence this mess...

Interesting times ahead, particularly as the release of Windows 7 approaches. But what do you think? Is Linux still a serious option for you when buying a new machine?