Is it lights out for desktop Linux?

Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:23AM EST

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ZDNet's Robin Harris is taking a hell of a beating over his recent post entitled "Windows kicks Linux to the curb," where he posits that Linux completely blew its chance to become a mainstream operating system after the majority of netbook vendors dropped the free OS they were initially enamored with in favor of good old Windows XP. The latest statistic: In the netbook market, Windows now holds an 80 percent market share, which is astonishing, since it looked like it would end up with a zero percent share when the netbook market got its start.

This issue has been bubbling up for months, and it came to a head in October when netbook maker MSI revealed that its Linux-based netbooks were returned four times as often as its Windows ones, indicating that consumers were just not interested in learning a new operating system, even if it was fundamentally similar to the one they already knew. On the other hand, consumers have been flocking to Apple computers in droves, which would also suggest that Linux isn't quite as easy to use as many of its proponents would like... and that price isn't as big an issue as many had thought.

Harris is right to wonder what the next move for Linux is: If it can't make it on a platform known for being basic, simple, and cheap, what hope does it have down the line when expectations are higher? Windows 7 is looking good, runs well on netbooks (unlike Vista), and will be pushed far harder for that platform than XP has ever been.

Linux enthusiasts respond that, hey, compared to the OS's history of having a market share between 2 and 3 percent, 20 percent isn't bad at all. That still may represent just a toehold in the industry, but it's vastly better than it's done in the last decade. And for what it's worth, Microsoft isn't thrilled about the whole netbook market, either: It makes just a fraction of the money it earns selling retail copies of Vista when it sells a copy of XP for a netbook. Hence this mess...

Interesting times ahead, particularly as the release of Windows 7 approaches. But what do you think? Is Linux still a serious option for you when buying a new machine?

Comments on Is it lights out for desktop Linux?

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  • 27 Posted by failious on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:58PM EDT Report Abuse

    I've worked retail computer sales and repair for 20+ years.. I use Ubuntu 90% of the time with applications like Open Office and Gaming. The one major drawback is the lack of commercial applications running natively under Linux. When you have to wait 6 months to two years before a game or application is released for Linux (Prey and Unreal Tournament 3) even though most of it was probably designed using Linux.. there is a problem. The problem being the developers don't see it as profitable. The other problem is the lack of accurate statistics.. Most Linux installs are on ex- Windows systems. My daughters both use Linux and their school has transitioned to it as well due to cost.

  • 28 Posted by brokenharp on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:13PM EDT Report Abuse

    It's about marketing. I admit, I'm not a huge computer guy, but... I never even heard of Linux until about a year ago!

  • 29 Posted by ph_majelin2 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:10PM EDT Report Abuse

    Yes, Linux is definitely still a serious option for me when I'm buying a new machine/computer. It sounds very appealing to me in that one can make their own programs on it (not that we can on Windows, but from what I hear it's easier on Linux)... or was it some other reason that make Linux so appealing? I forget... but I know Linux is good for something, and I wouldn't mind seeing what they're made of... so yes I'd buy a brand new computer, or at least greatly consider it, when I'm out there looking for a good comp to work on :)

  • 30 Posted by fromandrewvanbeek on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:03PM EDT Report Abuse

    The thing that puts people off from linux or Ubantu is the issue of compatibility. Many people have applications that cannot be used on either of them. Although Ubantu can double boot, it becomes really annoying when you have to shut down and reboot to use a program that couldn't be used. When they finally come up with an OS that will fix this issue, I will not hesitate to make the switch. Windows takes up too much memory and is slow.

  • 31 Posted by b_rieux on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:16PM EDT Report Abuse

    I think Linux has a bright future in embedded systems.

  • 32 Posted by chandlerben90 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:21PM EDT Report Abuse

    linux is the wrong tool for the job. simple. users find themselves hunting the internet for hacks to preform simple tasks / interface equipment. the geeks still dont get it...cause they are geeks.

  • 33 Posted by soniccrash on Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:32PM EDT Report Abuse

    You will have to be willing to learn a new OS I like using my Netbook with Linux on it. I am tired of windows for me it is so slow and You always have to tweek it. In the last 4 months It has done so many updates to my os. I am glad I only have to use my windows desktop for games and not work.for me Ubuntu has been really good to me. I liked it took only 5mins to load new os on first install. Window xp 20 min on same machine and did not even find my nic card. I belive Linux can compleate with Window once manufactures make mainstream drivers for it.

  • 34 Posted by radionewsguy96007 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:26PM EDT Report Abuse

    I must agree. I've tried to find Linux apps to support my video production business, but the scarcity of hardware drivers and a near-vertical learning curve for the few editing programs out there keeps forcing me to "follow the money" and use the XP programs that enable my income stream. Ubuntu Studio was a disaster for us, mostly due to a lack of coherent documentation. Open-Source is a wonderful idea, but without a tangible return on the thousands of hours of coding it takes to debug even a simple video editor, most developers will take the paycheck.

  • 35 Posted by sparky_40002003 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:35PM EDT Report Abuse

    You can modify applications in Linux that would typically only work in Windows. I had trouble installing World of Warcraft on my desktop after i converted from windows to Linux. I looked on the web and found that just by altering a few minor settings, i could get it to work. Sure, you have to mess with Wine and all that, but the program works seamlessly with no errors on Linux. Back on windows, WoW would crash after 15 minutes of play time. Sure, it's annoying when a particular application isnt downloadable for native use on Linux, but with some tweaking, it's an enjoyable OS to run.

  • 36 Posted by jerrodmaugans on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:33PM EDT Report Abuse

    I have ubuntu on my netbook, I like it the best...........DONT DIE LINUX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • 40 Posted by wargodsofeqoa on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:40PM EDT Report Abuse

    For Linux to be taken as a more serious OS a few things need to happen. First if everyone used the same darn flavor of Linux. Second more apps/games for that are popular. 3rd not every end user like my parents for example know of linux, all they know is windows so Linux needs to reach more people just not the tech savvy.

  • 41 Posted by whtdyln on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    I don't know why Vista gets such a bad wrap, it looks 100x better than XP and does not have as many flaws as people like to ----- about. I have seen every windows Os since 98 and think that Vista is the sharpest with the most available features.

  • 42 Posted by ned_milburn on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:35PM EDT Report Abuse

    "The thing that puts people off from linux or Ubantu is the issue of compatibility. Many people have applications that cannot be used on either of them. Although Ubantu can double boot, it becomes really annoying when you have to shut down and reboot to use a program that couldn't be used. When they finally come up with an OS that will fix this issue, I will not hesitate to make the switch. Windows takes up too much memory and is slow." You can install windows WITHIN linux with virtual machine software, so you don't have to "dual" boot. Many people claim that windows runs faster and more problem free when running as a VM (virtual machine). Check out Virtual Box, VMWare, Qemu... There are others... And by the way, it is "UBUNTU", not UBANTU. D.

  • 43 Posted by dmhoo29 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    Well here's my rant. Windows 95 was awesome until Windows 98 and then 98 SE and then came Windows ME. Suuuckedddddd Windows 2000 Pro = awesome performance Windows XP everyone said it was horrible and nothing worked with it. Everyone said keep Windows 2000 Pro. Hmmmm Same said with Vista. Keep XP that use to suck also. Windows 7 will suck for most people also. Linux needs to make a main core for all drivers with good compatibility like windows has and then let everyone pick what else they want. It's like anything else. You just have to learn how to use it. Once that's accomplished,everyone can sit back and watch the money hogs drop prices to compete.

  • 44 Posted by fergrajim on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:59PM EDT Report Abuse

    I have been using Linux at home for the past 6 years and mi main desktop is Vector 5.8. I do everything on it since mail, presentations, documents, spreadsheets, and spend some time gaming. when at work I have to use Win XP because there is not choice but I have preference for Linux to do my personal stuff. My Black box has installed Parsix 2.0, (excellent)Qimo for my grandchildren, and Vector 5.8.

  • 45 Posted by shaunsweb on Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:17PM EDT Report Abuse

    I think everyone has it wrong...which isn't shocking in the computer industry. It isn't that Linux was harder to use or learning a new operating system that killed it. Yes it is a bit of fear of unknown. But reality is the trendy Mac attack is working. Overpriced Macs are trendy and the cool thing to have. They had a great idea, the iPod, iPhone popularity is also helping people consider the MacBooks. I have talked to 6 people this last week that were informed by store employees that their iPods/iPhones were only compatible with MacBooks which led them to purchase the overpriced computers. I am starting to wonder if Apple is paying commission incentives to push their products, especially with this new misinformation that is going around.

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