Rumor: Toshiba Dropping HD DVD, Ending Format War

Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:18PM EST

See Comments (58)

Sources say the fat lady has sung: Toshiba will be killing off the HD DVD format in a matter of weeks, after retailers' decisions to stop carrying hardware and software using the format have left it with no other choice.

For the record, Toshiba officially states that no decision has been made, but that the company is "studying the market impact and the value proposition for consumers" of HD DVD.

But the writing is pretty clearly on the wall. Since the beginning of 2008, Blu-ray discs have outsold HD DVD discs at a rate of 3 to 1. With more and more retailers opting not to stock HD DVD equipment and movies, there's just no way that number is going to go up. (Even the HD DVD fire sale and a $2.7 million Super Bowl ad don't seem to be helping.) While previous analysts have guessed that HD DVD would survive through the holiday season of 2008, it looks like Toshiba is ready to call it quits and move on to greener pastures. It's said the company now loses several hundred dollars on each HD DVD player sold.

The only real question remaining is how soon the announcement could come, and what the remaining backers of HD DVD will do when it does. How quickly will Paramount and Universal be able to switch production from HD DVD to Blu-ray? And what will Microsoft, a longtime HD DVD supporter, do? Fodder a-plenty for future blog posts, I'm sure.

Meanwhile, I'm happy to kick off the official date of death pool for HD DVD right here. My guess: March 7. (Why? Toshiba's fiscal year ends on March 31, and it will want to take the huge writeoff it has coming before the end of the year. March 7 gives it enough time to set things up for a rebound in 2008... probably making Blu-ray equipment and eating humble pie.)

Post your death date prediction in the comments section below. Winner gets bragging rights until Sony jacks Blu-ray prices up an extra 20 percent in celebration of its big win. Yay!

(Update: Wal-Mart announced it's going Blu-only today, too. Come on, Toshiba!) 

LINK: Toshiba to drop HD DVD, sources say 

Comments on Rumor: Toshiba Dropping HD DVD, Ending Format War

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  • 6 Posted by alan_r_cam on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    Note from abroad: it's odd, but I don't remember seeing HD-DVD disks for sale (or rent). EVER. Blu-ray however is starting to turn up in the corner DVD store. Maybe South Australia is "behind the times" but in this instance I'll take that as a Good Thing. Oh, and mel_wfm_mnc, you either have a virus or an insatiable need to see your name in print. Re-hitting the "sand" key just because you don't immediately see your post? Not a good idea.

  • 7 Posted by chrisparry@att.net on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:24PM EDT Report Abuse

    I for one am very glad to see HD-DVD, the inferior technology, close up shop. For once the consumer gets the better technology on the first time around. Blu-Ray player prices will come down as we get to the holiday season. Also, if Sony wanted to make a good move, they would offer a $100 or $200 rebate to HD-DVD owners to help recoup some of the cost of switching formats. Mayber a trade in kind of thing, bring in your HD-DVD player and get $150 off of a new Blu-Ray player. Just a thought.

  • 8 Posted by bryankturer on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:14PM EDT Report Abuse

    Everyone seen it coming it was only a matter of time before HD-DVD's would be like the dinosaurs "EXTINCT". Blu-Ray is the future HD-DVD is the past. Sony has always been ahead of the tech world I mean look at the PS3 so much better then the XBOX 360 and it supports Blu-Ray. So what all of you should do is go buy a PS3 and spend the 400-500 dollars and you will have a complete home system with blu-ray and a gaming system that is so far more advance then the rest. Also the reason why blu-ray won the format crap is that you can put more on a blu-ray disc then a HD disc. So all of you that complain put all of this info in your pipe and smoke it. Enjoy wasting money on your cheap HD DVD that are a waste of money. Peace out....

  • 9 Posted by marklikesmoney on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:08PM EDT Report Abuse

    We're pumping too much hype into this battle. Spring is coming. Anyone more than 10 pounds overweight needs to spend less time watching movies at home and more time being active. Let me suggest jogging, swimming, cycling an yoga.

  • 10 Posted by leslyekahn on Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    So glad I just purchased an HD DVD player for my mom for Christmas! At least I didn't pay full price for it..that's one consolation.

  • 11 Posted by mel_wfm_mnc on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:16PM EDT Report Abuse

    hey chrmnxpnoy, i only post that comment once. i have no idea what the heck is that all about. no clue

  • 12 Posted by rogueist on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    Well I certainly hope there is a class action lawsuit regarding this... And I hope eventually people come to their senses and ditch BlueRay... But in the meantime, with no BlueRay players to be found for under the $400 mark I am not buying one anytime soon - nor is anyone else for that matter.

  • 13 Posted by dterresiii on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    Sony finally wins one. Do you remember Beta-max? So how long before flash media will be cheap enough to pose a threat to Blue-ray?

  • 14 Posted by mel_wfm_mnc on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:16PM EDT Report Abuse

    dteressi, i say less than 2 years to pose a threat.. in my opinion, technology moves so fast.

  • 15 Posted by ejc_99 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:52PM EDT Report Abuse

    Natural Selection is not just for the animal kingdom. BR wins, HD dies. Furthermore, dear rogueist, all I ever see you post is messages calling for a class action law suit. There was no promise by manufacturers or retailers that the format would be around for a specified period of time. Are you going to sue the car manufacturer that built the car that took you to the store to buy your HD-DVD too? Maybe I should sue Bells Beer because they only produce my favorite beer seasonally.

  • 16 Posted by overpeace on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:47PM EDT Report Abuse

    bryankturer have your facts straighted! PS3 still has to prove that it is better than xbox360. Personally, having both, I can't honestly say that my PS3 performs better at games than my xbo360. Also it's wrong to say that BlueRay can contain more than aHDDVD. The fact is actually the opposite. Latest specs for HDDVD discs give them a 2GB advantage over the largest available BlueRay media. Also HDDVD quality is absolutely on par with BlueRay at a lower cost. Anyways the fact is that everything seems to point at HDDVD soon demise. Arguably I wouldn't go buy a BlueRay setup anytime soon because of high price tag but I wouldn't buy a HDDVD drive either.

  • 17 Posted by korrupt9187 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:53PM EDT Report Abuse

    Personally I hope regular DVD stays around for a while. I like the ability to pick up a five dollar movie, put it in my $30 wal-mart DVD player, and play it on my $200 tv. Hi-Def is fine for people with money to spend, but I can find better things to spend my money on.

  • 18 Posted by erindreg on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:55PM EDT Report Abuse

    Forget this crap. I'm all for advances in techology, but I'm not going to waste my money buying movies anymore. You try to build a collection and they go extinct within a decade. No thanks. I only watch things that are on-demand.

  • 19 Posted by loonytoon1982 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:56PM EDT Report Abuse

    I just want to say that I don't understand why people who have no interest in the format war make comments or even read articles about it. I for one am neutral, I started with BluRay, bought into HD DVD and am now injecting more into my BluRay collection. Both formats are good but I do prefer BR over HD. As for downloads, they will take off in maybe 10 years because the infrastructure needs to be in place to allow it to happen and quite simply it's a long way off. As far as I knw most people will prefer to have a hard copy of their movies and it's easy to spot who HD fans are over BR fans. You will see HD fans mention that BR is just a fad and downloads will take over, but I see this is a slightly bitter take on things since the format of choice missed out. Again, as a neutral I know the benefits of both and I'm skeptical about even buying the cheap HD DVDs in case something goes wrong with my player in future. I don't want to be left with a lot of movies that I can't use because the format doesn't exist anymore. If the rumours are true then it's good for movie fans in general as the format war will end sooner rather than later. That being said Toshiba and HD DVD are comparable to the Titanic, they thought they were unsinkable but they didn't see the Warner iceberg right ahead and they're sinking quickly. There simply aren't enough lifeboats to keep them afloat for much longer and the Carpathia is still a long way off.

  • 20 Posted by chance91201 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:21PM EDT Report Abuse

    Well, it was bound to happen. The lack of competition in the marketplace will keep Blue Ray prices for hardware and software artificially high for quite some time. Murdoch is quoted in Variety that BR is valuable because it has a higher margin than DVD. As on example, they would much rather sell Ice Age for 34.99 on BR than 9.99 on DVD. It is a way for the studios to attempt to offset the slowdown in DVD sales, buy charging more for the same content. Studios don't care about the presentation either. Just look how many download services they all support, completely platform agnostic with downloadable movies/ DRM movies. Blue Ray was pitched as the most secure format, with "renewable copyright protection". It was seen as pirate proof, and that was the main reason why the studios lined up behind Blue Ray. The fear was the HD DVD was not a secure format, and to put out a pristine copy of the movie to be freely duplicated off a HD DVD killed early support for the format. Sony claimed that BR was more secure. I guess none of the competing studios bothered to check the levels of software piracy on the Playstation platforms, or they would have known that Sony has a terrible track record in keeping digital content secured. It will be a fascinating history lesson eventually. How the media companies were able to use the internet to create a format war and make fanboys passionate about who is the victor. In the end though, who wins in this situation? The only thing that the consumers are receiving from the spoils of this war is higher prices for hardware, software, and higher rental fees. Why should we celebrate that?

  • 21 Posted by somebodys_here on Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:32PM EDT Report Abuse

    I hate it when people compare this with the Betamax fiasco... fact: Beta never died, it's only used by professionals- namely MOVIE STUDIOS. Go to any TV station that airs in 1080i and you will find Beta everywhere. Sony didn't lose that one- the consumer did. And personally, I am sorry for those who think otherwise.

  • 22 Posted by russellfclark on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:56PM EDT Report Abuse

    As an owner of both Blu-Ray & HD DVD, I am amazed at how retailers & the media have just fallen in line behind Blu-Ray, when this is clearly a situation of the tail wagging the dog, in stark contrast to what the consumer is actually saying, a& goes against the best interests of consumers, independent producers, & the industry as a whole. The headlines that you are not seeing are that the consumer is clearly choosing HD DVD over Blu-Ray as a platform, despite the fact that more Blu-Ray discs have been sold to date. According to NPD, http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6413168, 8% more HD DVD players were sold than Blu-Ray players over the course of last year. Ah, but that was before Warner Brothers dropped support. Live data on Amazon, http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514/ref=pd_zg_hrsr_e_1_2, shows the top 3 HD players are each outselling the top 3 Blu-Ray players. & that is as of today, after everyone has proclaimed that HD DVD is dead. The reason is simple, & is the reason HD is clear choice for consumers, producers, & retailers since the beginning: price. HD DVD is based on the existing DVD technology, so manufacturing the drives & discs is cheaper. So, while Blu-Ray was able to gain a majority share of the disc sales by focusing on niche titles that catered to early adopters, HD DVD is catering to your average Joe, who has consistently chosen HD over Blu-Ray at the store, & with the latest drop in HD DVD player & disc prices is continuing to do so. So, why all the noise then from Blu-Ray supporters & headlines decrying that the end is near for HD DVD? Well, the Blu-Ray camp can extrapolate the trends into the future as well as anyone else, & see that once HD DVD reaches main stream adoption it will clearly have an advantage over Blu-Ray, so they are taking their lead in disc sales to claim the game is over despite the fact that consumer has been & continues to choose the HD DVD platform over the Blu-Ray platform when deciding which player to buy. Common sense tells you that if the lower cost alternative for discs & players becomes the st&ard, then that st&ard will be adopted more quickly, since people will be able to afford more players & discs. If that is the case, then even if HD DVD drops out of the picture completely, Blu-Ray will not be adopted as rapidly as HD DVD would have due to its price, which is not good for the industry as a whole or consumers. It also isn't good for independent movie producers who also prefer the lowest cost platform, because they are much more sensitive to margin due to their low volumes. So, given that HD DVD is the lower cost platform in terms of costs of discs & players, & given that consumers have been & are continuing to choose HD DVD over Blu-Ray as a platform choice, then why is everyone st&ing behind Blu-Ray? Those are good questions to ask Wal-Mart, Best Buy, & NetFlix, who surely wouldn't be putting alliances with Blu-Ray ahead of the consumer, right?

  • 23 Posted by jastarfeather on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:29PM EDT Report Abuse

    All I have to say is that I am glad there is at least some decent level of upconvertability.

  • 24 Posted by jwrasp on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    The cruel irony is that for once, Sony will win the battle on a format, but lose the war, as more HD movies are delivered to the home user via broadband. People actually buying discs of any type will be looked upon as strange within the next 5 years... So hooray for Blu-Ray! Oops it just got run over by the VOD... In actuality, Blu-ray does interest me for archival purposes, but frankly most movies are not worth seeing more than once and the ones that are will always be readily accessible...

  • 25 Posted by jim316@sbcglobal.net on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:35PM EDT Report Abuse

    What all you people are doing is supporting the media. Think about it for a minute. For those who remember the 8 tracks. Then finally to CDs. Just like the VHS, and now the so called Blu-ray. When the masses all get together, we collectively can stop the madness. For me ? I'll stay with the DVDs

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