Internet book piracy = No more books?

Panic alarms are ringing over in Britain, where the Society of Authors (a group representing 8,500 UK writers) has pronounced that Internet piracy will soon lead to nothing short of writers abandoning their craft and ceasing to write altogether.

Color me unconvinced.

It's easy to point to the drastic decline in CD sales as a signal that the same thing could happen to the book world, as advance copies of many books have been leaked online before they hit the presses. The author of the above linked story in the Times Online points to such "victims" as J.K. Rowling, author of the Harry Potter series, by way of example of those being hurt by piracy.

Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up. While music sales are down, the most recent figures show that book sales continue to rise. In 2006 (the most recent year for which numbers are available), sales were up 3.2 percent over 2005. The forecast is that sales will continue to increase healthily through 2011 at least.

But won't pirates change the picture? I sincerely doubt it. For starters, there's a vast difference between the typical book "pirate" and the typical person who downloads music illegally. In the world of books, those itching to get their hands on the latest Potter fable are usually ultra-fans who just can't wait for the book to go on sale legitimately. They want to read the book first... but come on-sale day, what do they do? They buy a real copy of the book. People still collect books in ways that have long been abandoned for music.

Naturally, writers of less popular books might be worried that their stories don't have the same must-have appeal that someone like Rowling does. But even authors of niche works probably have little to worry about. As a point of fact, I recently re-published one of my own books on how to become a film critic as an e-book, after selling out of printed paperbacks. Though the e-book could, in theory, be stolen and re-distributed without pay, that hasn't happened. In fact, sales are up a little over the printed version of the book, even though the book is now a few years old. (Check it out here!)

But don't take my word for it. Just ask J.K. Rowling. How bad did those nasty pirates hurt her book sales? She sold 10.8 million copies of the final Potter book in its first 24 hours, shattering the previous record (which she also held).

Filthy pirates.