2010: D-day for the Internet as it hits "full capacity"?

Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:19PM EDT

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Doom-filled warnings arrive from AT&T this week. The company says that without substantial investment in network infrastructure, the Internet will essentially run out of bandwidth in just two short years.

Blame broadband, says AT&T. Decades of dealing with the trickle of bandwidth consumed by voice and dialup modems left AT&T twiddling its thumbs. The massive rise of DSL and cable modem service in the 2000s has had AT&T facing a monstrous increase in the volume of data transmissions. And that's set to increase another 50 times between now and 2015. That's enough, says AT&T, to all but crash the system.

In response, AT&T says it's investing $19 billion to upgrade the backbone of the Internet, the routers, servers, and connections where the bulk of traffic is processed.

Of course, AT&T is using this breathlessness in part to point fingers beyond simple broadband use. Web video (especially high-definition video) is the most commonly mentioned bandwidth hog. AT&T says video alone will eat up 80 percent of traffic in two years vs. just 30 percent now. One wonders how YouTube doesn't collapse under the pressure. Hmmm.

Meanwhile, many are wondering whether this is prelude to AT&T announcing (or not announcing, but doing anyway) a traffic prioritization/shaping system like Comcast has been tinkering with... and which has earned it nothing but scorn. Net neutrality (which would forbid premium pricing for certain Internet applications and destinations) is a topic that continues to be hotly debated on Capitol Hill, and telcos are anxious to kill the idea since they'd love to be able to charge additional money for different kinds of web traffic. If the whole Internet is about to crash, well, that makes AT&T's argument all the more compelling, doesn't it?

Comments on 2010: D-day for the Internet as it hits "full capacity"?

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  • 47 Posted by megawavez on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:15PM EDT Report Abuse

    I thought youtube + google = do no evil...

  • 48 Posted by jacquelyn.nixon on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:27PM EDT Report Abuse

    No it won't. They are already building a new one. It's been in the works for about 7+ years.

  • 50 Posted by rxdirectcontractor on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:57PM EDT Report Abuse

    As is the fundamental principle of supply and demand capitalism, as we are painfully aware through the spike in oil prices, the cost of Internet access should be dramatically increased and an access fee system based upon bandwidth usage in order to deal with the rampant growth of usage and the limited infrastructure. Sad to say--but $100 monthly broadband basic access and $150 large volume usage will fix this looming problem.

  • 51 Posted by waynefoutz on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:41PM EDT Report Abuse

    they have been saying this since 1995. It's nonsense.

  • 52 Posted by healthylivingwealthy on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:17PM EDT Report Abuse

    Do you think this will be another Y2K scams? Remember Y2K got people going out and storing all kinds of stuff in their basement or garage. Well, this is another one of those. I do hope all of these computers and internet crash because people are way too much into computers and technologies these days. Pretty soon, computers will take over the world and we'll be left with nothing. " Men developed computers, computers kills men, women take over the world " :-) don't you wish that was true. Freaky! kinda like Terminator: Judgement day! ha ha ha.

  • 53 Posted by cwcnoles03 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:33PM EDT Report Abuse

    this is complete b.s. it is simply not going to happen and if it does things will go back to a more intranet based system where a corp doesn't control the backbone. the backbone should be computers connected in an intranet fashion anyways.

  • 54 Posted by debsaran on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:40PM EDT Report Abuse

    The doom and gloom prophecy comes before the statement.. "Well, there is a way to prevent the internet from going away...simply pay more for the access you have".. When AT & T was giving away its DSL service at less than $10 a month, someone should have thought about the long range cost of maintaining that service. AT & T and other providers have invested millions in internet access. We can rest assured it isn't going away, just going to cost more to use.

  • 55 Posted by larrydallas2010 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:56PM EDT Report Abuse

    Providers like AT+T have been trying to corner the internet market for years (see net neutrality) and this is just another scare tactic. As we speak they are lobbying congress for this. I'm not anti-Corporation but this is a vulgar misuse of power.

  • 56 Posted by hayesworld on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:17PM EDT Report Abuse

    Read Jump Point: How Network Culture is Revolutionizing Business (McGraw-Hill) by Tom Hayes to see what happens to the Internet in 2011...

  • 58 Posted by maddenrobin on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:02PM EDT Report Abuse

    Impossible. First there is the White Space Frequencies of Broadcast Television that can be used once it is approved for Internet use. Then Japan has already launched Orbiting Internet Satellites that broadcast 1.2 Gbits of data per second. The issue is always going to be who gets the best service and for what price.

  • 59 Posted by fluxorz on Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:25PM EDT Report Abuse

    sounds like the swiss have their work cut out for them! they've been working on an "internet 2.0" that they call "the grid." it's 10,000 times faster than the current internet. that means that today's 20mbps cable routers will be tomorrow's 56k modems. pretty big change, huh? you can see what i'm talking about at: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2001/03/42230

  • 60 Posted by metallicafan87 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:16PM EDT Report Abuse

    So this is where my $60 dollars a month for internet is going. This is b.s. and things like this should never be happening with the prices that us consumers are paying for internet.

  • 62 Posted by mark_maceachern on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:08PM EDT Report Abuse

    How about all you nerds get off your butts and go do something with your lives instead of sitting in front of the darn computer screen all day long. Who gives a ----- if the internet gets messed up, what are you going to have to actually talk to people face to face instead of instant messaging them, or emailing them. Seriously, I think we would do fine without porn and myspace. Peace.

  • 63 Posted by hooshy69 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:20PM EDT Report Abuse

    kojak58_1x_sailorman "In my opinion, this smells. It smells like another effort in the making by greedy corporations... to bleed the consumer of even more outrageous sums of money." thanks for saving me typing time! :D

  • 64 Posted by lightyearkev1 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:50PM EDT Report Abuse

    I have new for people.. AT&T is NOT the internet. Maybe around 15 years ago but AT&T is only 1 provider of the internets backbone in the US. There is a HUGE amount of unused fiber in the US. At&T is trying to do what it did when local service was spreading, get the US Govt to fund large parts of it at the tax payers expense and then they can charge us some crazy amount for the service just like they did for phone service. Funny how they paid billions for the analog frequencys that will be freed up when TV stations switch over to digital only to use for cell service and suddenly they say in 2 years there will be no more bandwidth.

  • 65 Posted by trinity5150 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:21PM EDT Report Abuse

    I will be taking a step back to the days when the internet was astronomically expensive. I find it interesting that only the big companies are proposing the metered charge again.

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