2010: D-day for the Internet as it hits "full capacity"?

Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:19PM EDT

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Doom-filled warnings arrive from AT&T this week. The company says that without substantial investment in network infrastructure, the Internet will essentially run out of bandwidth in just two short years.

Blame broadband, says AT&T. Decades of dealing with the trickle of bandwidth consumed by voice and dialup modems left AT&T twiddling its thumbs. The massive rise of DSL and cable modem service in the 2000s has had AT&T facing a monstrous increase in the volume of data transmissions. And that's set to increase another 50 times between now and 2015. That's enough, says AT&T, to all but crash the system.

In response, AT&T says it's investing $19 billion to upgrade the backbone of the Internet, the routers, servers, and connections where the bulk of traffic is processed.

Of course, AT&T is using this breathlessness in part to point fingers beyond simple broadband use. Web video (especially high-definition video) is the most commonly mentioned bandwidth hog. AT&T says video alone will eat up 80 percent of traffic in two years vs. just 30 percent now. One wonders how YouTube doesn't collapse under the pressure. Hmmm.

Meanwhile, many are wondering whether this is prelude to AT&T announcing (or not announcing, but doing anyway) a traffic prioritization/shaping system like Comcast has been tinkering with... and which has earned it nothing but scorn. Net neutrality (which would forbid premium pricing for certain Internet applications and destinations) is a topic that continues to be hotly debated on Capitol Hill, and telcos are anxious to kill the idea since they'd love to be able to charge additional money for different kinds of web traffic. If the whole Internet is about to crash, well, that makes AT&T's argument all the more compelling, doesn't it?

Comments on 2010: D-day for the Internet as it hits "full capacity"?

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  • 6 Posted by phantazy77 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:09PM EDT Report Abuse

    we must come up with a method of fighting back

  • 8 Posted by rorbincalendar on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:51PM EDT Report Abuse

    This is why it's important to have a FREE MARKET where I am FREE to choice my provider. Hello Verizon, goodbye AT&T!________Additionally, vertical integration of new features and services by broadband network operators is an essential part of the innovation strategy companies will need to use to compete and offer customers the services they demand. Network operators also have property rights in their systems that need to be acknowledged and honored. Net neutrality mandates would flout those property rights and reject freedom of contract in this marketplace.______________ The regulatory regime envisioned by Net neutrality mandates would also open the door to a great deal of potential "gaming" of the regulatory system and allow firms to use the regulatory system to hobble competitors. Worse yet, it would encourage more FCC regulation of the Internet and broadband markets in general.______NET NEUTRALITY IS A BAD IDEA!

  • 9 Posted by jerpil_007 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:12PM EDT Report Abuse

    I agree with kojak58_1xsailorman. With computers costing more and more money to upgrade and fix, etc, this seems like anotheder way to bleed money out of us. Look at the gas prices, food prices, sheesh, makes one want to head for the hills and live off the land, NOT! First you have to buy land!:)

  • 10 Posted by rogueist on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    Only the US "internet" will crash... The rest of the world is 50 years ahead of the US already in capacity, so nothing will happen elsewhere. The rest of the world realized early on that speed reduces the required capacity in the long run. So the most advanced networks can transfer multi gigabytes of data in several seconds, which makes streaming videos a snap. Just 2 seconds and a full HD movie is transfered to your device for viewing. Much better than eating up limited bandwidth for hours to get it - get it in a snap and free up the lines. Different approach - one that works.

  • 11 Posted by aprkareckas on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:57PM EDT Report Abuse

    Like the shortages of oil and refineries, AT&T is setting up their "reason" for gouging money from the us so they can make obscene profits. They are quick to point fingers at the users, for their failure to upgrade and improve.

  • 12 Posted by gooddayz39 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:11PM EDT Report Abuse

    Have no fear Satelite tech is only going to improve.. and The big cable corps will have to continue to upgrade or topple. The era of big corporate is coming to a close. Big companies that exploit the weaknesses of thier customers can only lose them.

  • 13 Posted by muscogeekid on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:30PM EDT Report Abuse

    Hey, what about powerline transmissions? Where did that idea go? Supposedly there's enough bandwidth there to dwarf cable/DSL.

  • 15 Posted by agustin2489 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:47PM EDT Report Abuse

    This story sounds highly too dramatic to be a bit credible. I understand the fears behind it but ... I dunno, something doesn't add up. Ultimately, businesses will need their bandwidth to function and thus, will have to invest in better connections.

  • 16 Posted by kupriaa1 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:54PM EDT Report Abuse

    rorbincalendar - You are lost- you are silly- you cant read.

  • 17 Posted by scott.mcelwain on Fri Apr 25, 2008 6:02AM EDT Report Abuse

    If you've got an iPhone on AT&T's data network, you'd think the internet had already run out of bandwidth!

  • 18 Posted by g_tagni on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:15PM EDT Report Abuse

    One wonders how YouTube doesn't collapse under the pressure. Hmmm first of all, the quality of videos in youTube is not HD, it's really poor and second of all, the size of the videos (related to quality) is rather small (even when you consider all the users that download these videos)

  • 19 Posted by g_tagni on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:15PM EDT Report Abuse

    I don't understand why now all of the sudden most people are against the idea of premium pricing for certain Internet applications when, if you think, Net neutrality has been lost loooong ago. Or do these people forget that many Web sites require premium accounts (i.e. money) to get access to certain type of content. We are alredy using a premium pricing and yet everybody seems to agree.

  • 20 Posted by rorbincalendar on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:51PM EDT Report Abuse

    kupriaa1 in other words I am correct and you are a fan of net neutrality. Which simply means you have no understanding of markets or economics. Let me know if I can recommend some reading for you.

  • 21 Posted by james_e_gentry_iv on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:28PM EDT Report Abuse

    Here is the real answer to the problem! The Grid: The Next-Gen Internet! The Matrix may be the future of virtual reality, but researchers say the Grid is the future of collaborative problem-solving. More than 400 scientists gathered at the Global Grid Forum this week to discuss what may be the Internet's next evolutionary step. CERN has a reputation for being at the forefront of networking technology - "where the Web was born" is the lab's motto. When it comes to Grid technology, this is particularly true: CERN is leading some of the most ambitious Grid projects in the world. CERN has chosen Grid technology to solve a huge data storage and analysis challenge it will face in 2008, when the Large Hadron Collider, the biggest scientific instrument in the world, starts running.

  • 22 Posted by ttisot on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:23PM EDT Report Abuse

    Really? Makes you think Al Gore is working for AT&T now. Maybe if we cut back on our carbon emissions we can save some bandwidth...Geez

  • 23 Posted by lennyogarc on Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:49PM EDT Report Abuse

    Let's be honest, the point is that technology continues to evolve. And that not only does one or two areas need to evolve to keep up, but more things do. AT&T is right.... imagine if the freeways were never expanded to keep up with traffic. This is common sense and doesn't even warrant writing an article about. What a waste of time.

  • 24 Posted by adamlewis7609 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:45PM EDT Report Abuse

    The internet CANNOT crash! Each website is a different computer hosted from different places in the world. This is NOT possible! Buyer beware!

  • 25 Posted by brody_mail on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:13PM EDT Report Abuse

    This is TOTAL B.S. !!! The internet is a virtual network that draws upon the resources of the users that make up the network. Yes, servers/routers/switches/etc. are the workhorses BUT it is absurd to say we will cra----- ! The more users there are, the more capacity is created in a way. The same thing (capacity issues) happened in the cell phone industry (I've worked in it for 12 years) so they developed more efficient digital systems to overcome the "bogging down" of the limited analog network and it's users. It is a simple capacity issue that "AT&T" and their brethren should be continually upgrading their systems to guard against BUT as I saw posted by someone else - it's simple economics = they (AT&T) either want "us" or a governemnt handout to foot the bill rather than take it out of their own CEO's golden parachutes...

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