Trouble in Gamesville?

On the heels of the "well, we're not actually quite dead yet" news about PC gaming, Wagner James Au writes that consoles may not be the bastion of strength in the industry that many may feel them to be. Is Au right that the current generation of consoles has already hit a wall?

Au's argument focuses on Grand Theft Auto IV, which he notes has sold 9 million copies as of June 7. Sounds good, but he goes on to note that Grand Theft Auto San Andreas moved 21.5 million copies in 2004. GTA4 will be lucky to sell a little over half of that, and since it cost $100 million to develop, signs may point to next-gen gaming hitting the rocks.

The math paints a somewhat different picture to me. At $60 a pop, GTA4 is poised to rake in a solid $720 million in sales, at least. If GTA4 had been a movie production, it'd be an unmitigated smash hit. To put it in comparison: That would be enough money in worldwide sales to place it as the #28 highest-grossing movie ever, just below The Matrix Reloaded and above Transformers. By comparison, Transformers cost about $150 million to make. I can't see any way that GTA4 could seriously be called a flop.

Now there are many hands in the pockets of the gaming distribution process (just as there are in moviemaking), so that $720 million doesn't all go to Take-Two, the game's developer. But though the developer has faced some financial difficulties in recent years, the company probably won't be hurting after the dust settles (which is a major reason why Electronic Arts is desperate to acquire Take-Two).

That said, there is some weakness in the current console market (as Au also notes), but there are myriad reasons for this, too. Front and center is a sour economy and an industry that still expects consumers to pay a minimum of $400 for a PlayStation 3. But PS3 sales are rising (and will continue to do so as prices fall). Xbox 360 sales are headed down. And of course, the Wii is a success story that no one can contest. The future of this generation of consoles is in flux, but there still seems to be plenty of activity in an industry that's now worth some $10 billion.

One interesting point in this debate comes from developer Warren Spector, who posits that the era of "hundred hour games" is coming to an end. GTA4, like all of the GTA series, is one of the most time-consuming games money can buy. (Length has long been a selling factor for games; some players feel they're "getting their money's worth" if they have to play it for months to finish.) But casual games, which can be picked up and put down on a whim, do seem to be on the rise. Consider one of the hottest types of games on the market now: Music games like Rock Band, which need only be played one song at a time.

That said, I really love my GTA, even if it is sucking my life away.