Blu-ray's toughest competitor: The humble DVD

Blu-ray may have won the battle when it vanquished HD DVD in February, but it's still waging a war—and for now at least, it looks like a David-vs.-Goliath face-off. Who's Goliath in this scenario? Turns out it's your old friend, the DVD.

Don't get me wrong—Blu-ray is showing signs of strength. Besides taking out the competing HD DVD format in February, recent numbers show that Blu-ray movies are selling at a much quicker pace this year than last; indeed, Blu-ray disc sales have jumped 351 percent over the same period last year, according to Reuters.

But here's where the bad news starts. Nielsen just released its most recent Blu-ray vs. DVD disc sales figures, and if you're a Blu fan, the numbers are daunting. For the week ending April 13, DVD enjoyed a whopping 95 percent of the total disc sales market, leaving a paltry five percent for Blu-ray. Ouch.

Meanwhile, industry watchers believe that any market share that Blu-ray happens to be gaining is mostly thanks to the Blu-ray-equipped PlayStation 3—and beyond that, "there's very little installed base," according to one analyst.

Part of the problem, of course, is that stand-alone Blu-ray player prices are still hovering around $300 to $400—and that's for older players like Samsung's BD-P1400 and Sony's BD-S300, which are already out of date. Meanwhile, Blu-ray prices aren't expected to drop significantly until next year.

Another hurdle for Blu-ray is that standard DVD players are ridiculously cheap. I was browsing the aisles at Best Buy the other day and stumbled on a progressive-scan DVD deck for $29—cheaper than some Blu-ray movies. I also found plenty of name-brand upscaling DVD players well south of $150.

And after all this time, I still find myself regularly having to explain the benefits of Blu-ray over DVD—and more often than not, I'm greeted by a blank stare, which turns to disbelief when I mention the $300 price tags for players.

So for now, at least, it still looking like Blu-ray has a long row to hoe—and indeed, with streaming HD movies via cable, Vudu, the Xbox Video Marketplace, and Apple TV gaining traction, Blu-ray may never take off in the way that DVD did.

What do you think? Will Blu-ray eventually succeed DVD once Blu-ray player prices drop? Or will Blu-ray have to settle for second (or third) fiddle?

Related:
Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending April 13th, 2008 [Engadget HD]