5 reasons to hold off on the iPhone 3G

Yes, I'm one of those guys who wait in line the day a shiny new gadget goes on sale, and the iPhone 3G is one of the shiniest gadgets of all. But while I'll be out there waiting in the wee hours of July 11 (it's my job, after all), the rest of you should think twice before losing sleep on launch day. Here's why.

1. Shortages are unlikely
Remember last year, when we all got in line early for the iPhone because we were afraid it would sell out? Well, that didn't quite happen. Yes, individual AT&T stores sold out quickly, but many Apple stores had plenty of iPhones in stock in the days and weeks after the big day. (Indeed, there weren’t any serious iPhone 1.0 shortages until just recently.) Also, word of hundreds of massive overseas shipments bound for Apple (which began arriving as early as March) leads me to believe that there's a healthy supply of iPhone 3Gs on hand. So if you're worrying about a Wii-like shortage of the iPhone 3G, well ... I wouldn't. [Update: Clearly, I couldn't have been more wrong about this one.]

2. Chaos on Day One
Unlike last year, customers won't be able to activate their new iPhones over iTunes—instead, clerks will have to activate them in the store, contracts will have to be signed on the spot, and new AT&T subscribers will have to undergo credit checks. It could take a good 10-15 minutes per customer—and that's if things go smoothly. It'll be a new process for everyone—especially for Apple Store employees, who aren't accustomed to processing cell phone contracts—so I'm anticipating (dreading, actually) a train wreck next Friday. Even if you're dying to lay hands on the iPhone 3G, you might want to wait a week or so until they get the kinks worked out.

3. 32GB iPhone 3G on the horizon
I was keenly disappointed when Steve Jobs didn't unveil a 32GB iPhone last month—indeed, all we got were 8GB and 16GB versions, and I'd personally like an iPhone that I could cram with as much music and video as I can stand. Here's the thing, though—a 32GB iPhone 3G is probably coming within the next six months, if not sooner (well, that's my guess). If I wasn't buying the 16GB iPhone 3G for Yahoo! Tech, I'd probably sit tight and wait for the 32GB version to arrive.

4. Best new iPhone features are coming to the original iPhone
Yes, the iPhone 3G will be getting GPS and, of course, 3G—but for now, you can't download music tracks over AT&T's 3G network or access AT&T's streaming video service. For me, the most exciting thing about the new iPhone is the upcoming App Store, which will be stocked with scores of 3D games, chat clients, productivity apps, RSS readers, you name it—and the App Store will be available July 11 as a free upgrade to the old iPhone. That'll keep you busy till the 32GB iPhone comes out.

5. The HTC Touch Diamond
I've seen the future of cell phones, folks, and it's called the HTC Touch Diamond. With its gorgeous VGA screen, beautiful touch-screen interface, and compact, light-weight shell, the Diamond is the first phone to make me green-eyed with envy since … well, since the original iPhone. The Diamond is set to arrive in the U.S. in September, and spy shots of a Sprint-branded Touch Diamond are already circulating on the Web. You might want to give the Diamond a serious look before committing to a new two-year iPhone contract.