Is iTunes going DRM-free Tuesday?

Rumors are flying that iTunes will finally offer DRM-free tunes from all four of the big music labels as early as Tuesday, but some respected industry observers are pouring cold water on the buzz.

It all started late Monday afternoon, when AppleInsider picked up a story from French tech site ElectronLibre claiming that Apple would replace the FairPlay-protected tracks from music labels Sony, Universal, and Warner with DRM-free versions on December 9—today. (EMI went DRM-free on iTunes last year.)

That got the ball rolling, and pretty soon more than a dozen blogs had weighed in (including, now, this one). But as of 9am EST Tuesday (still early in the day, mind you), it looks like Sony, Universal, and Warner tracks are still armed with FairPlay DRM.

Meanwhile, some key industry bloggers with solid sources in the music biz are skeptical that today is the big day—although they acknowledge that a DRM-free iTunes music store is probably coming, perhaps in time for Macworld 2009 in January.

CNET.com digital entertainment reporter Greg Sandoval writes that while Apple is, indeed, negotiating with the big labels, rumors of a DRM-free announcement from Apple today "are bogus," adding:

No, none of the deals if final as of Monday afternoon and one source told me it's unlikely Apple will have anything to announcing regarding DRM-free music from the top labels before the end of the year.

Over at VentureBeat, blogger Mg Siegler notes that that the "iTunes Plus" link on the main iTunes store page—which sparked some hopeful speculation after it disappeared a few weeks ago—is now back. "It seems to me that Apple is clearly working on this area, but it doesn't appear to be set for a new launch yet," Siegler wrote.

Grumpier still is Ed Oswald over at Technologizer, who points out that the major music labels aren't eager to give Apple the keys to the MP3 kingdom. "Simply put, the record labels have been holding Apple hostage in an attempt to break its dominance," Oswald writes—and yes, he's absolutely right. "This is the only thing that the record industry has over Apple, and I just can't see them giving it up that easily."

What do I think? Well, I agree that Apple will eventually win Sony, Universal, and Warner over, but c'mon—a major DRM-free announcement from Apple today, without warning? Seems hard to believe. This sounds like Apple event-worthy news, and Macworld 2009 is probably the right venue. Of course, I've been wrong before—guess we'll have to wait and see.

So, what do you think—you believe the rumors, or the naysayers? Or are you just as happy buying your DRM-free tunes from Amazon/Napster/Walmart, etc.?