Whither the big tech trade shows?

Apple's backing out of Macworld, CES is shrinking (albeit slowly), DigitalLife got cancelled … are the big tech trade shows on their way out? And if so, does it matter?

No question about it—2008 has been a tough year for trade shows, and 2009 isn't looking much better. For the past several weeks, Twitter has been abuzz with bloggers and journalists asking each other, "You going to CES?" "I dunno, you?" "Will it be worth it?"

Yesterday's news that Macworld 2009 will be Apple's last only fueled the "trade shows are dying!" fire, with many observers wondering if Macworld can survive without, you know, Apple being there. (It doesn't help that such big names as Adobe, Belkin, and Creative Labs have already bailed on this year's event.) Show organizers promised Ars Technica that Macworld 2010 will go on as scheduled, but after that, well…

Macworld isn't the only trade show in trouble. The 2008 edition of DigitalLife, a small but fun (well, I thought it was fun) tech/gaming held each fall here in New York, was canceled in August by organizer Ziff Davis Media, which cited "poor economic conditions" for scotching the show. Ziff execs said at the time that a "bigger and stronger" DigitalLife will return next year, but somehow, I doubt it.

Now, there's no question that this year's CES—the mammoth Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas—will again be crammed with hoards of eager journalists and tech geeks, and I've no doubt the show will continue to draw crowds in 2010 and (gulp) beyond.

But as CNET points out, CES 2009 will actually be smaller than the 2008 and 2007 editions, with several big names (including Yahoo! itself) scaling back their delegations. A quick peek on Expedia reveals that scores of hotels—including the Bellagio, Venetian, Wynn, MGM Grand, Paris, Mirage, Caesars, and even the Hilton (which is right next to the convention center, and thus a hot ticket)—still have plenty of rooms, and some hotels are slashing prices (just $180 a night at the Paris, for instance) to draw more conventioneers.

Another worrisome sign (for show organizers, at least): The relative dearth of CES parties. Just compare last year's party list—there have to be dozens of events listed here, including 24 on the opening night—to the slim pickings this year, with only a lonely quartet of low-key opening-night parties listed so far. Hey—maybe the list will get longer once we get closer to the show, right? Guess we'll find out.

So … are big shows such as CES and the like doomed? It's hard to imagine CES ever folding up its tent (although I wouldn't lose any sleep if it did)—but 10 years ago, I would have said the same thing about the now-defunct Comdex, a once-massive show that up and died back in 2004.

Indeed, I've heard plenty of talk lately about how smaller, more targeted shows—like CEDIA for home theater enthusiasts, PMA for digital imaging, and CTIA for wireless—might eventually eclipse mega-shows like CES. Meanwhile, you've got companies like Apple, which are so big that they don't even bother with trade shows, and Philips, which saved the expense of going to Vegas by hosting a (well-attended) "we're not going to CES" event in Midtown Manhattan yesterday.

And what about you, the gadget fiend who's reading this blog—should you care if big shows like CES have passed their respective primes? Not really—that is, unless you enjoy spending hundreds of bucks to cram into an overcrowded exhibit hall. Sure, trade shows used to be the best places to catch up on the latest gear and hobnob with fellow techies. But now there's a daily parade of new toys on dozens of gadget blogs (like this one), and if you want to mix with the locals, well, that's what the Comments section is for.

So, I'm curious: Anyone here really worried about whether big shows like CES will survive? Or is it only an issue for event organizers, and the bloggers (like me) and journalists who cover them?