Report: Don't expect next-gen gaming consoles until 2013, at least

Pining for a PlayStation 4 or an Xbox 720? Well, according to one high-profile gaming analyst, the "next generation" of gaming consoles won't arrive until 2013—if "at all."

Gaming blog Edge reports (via Kotaku) on a recent article from gaming analyst Michael Pachter, who predicts that while we may see a high-definition Wii in the near future, we're probably years away from the "next generation" of gaming consoles.

"We do not expect the 'next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all," Pachter writes (as reported by Edge).

Why the wait? According to Pachter, at least, we can blame the holdup on gaming software publishers who "have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle"—in other words, developers are still paying for the "learning curve" involved in mastering the complex architectures of the high-end Xbox 360 and (especially) PlayStation 3 platforms.

Now, if we look back a few years, we'll see that Sony waited six years between the PS2 (released in fall 2000) and the PS3 (fall 2006), while Microsoft cranked out its next-gen Xbox 360 in late 2005, just four years after the original Xbox.

So using history as a guide, you might expect a PlayStation 4 as soon as 2012, and a new Xbox in … well, just a few months, right?

But this generation of consoles—the seventh, according to Wikipedia—clearly seems different. Quality-wise, the first Xbox 360 consoles were pretty shoddy, but as a platform in general, it's still cranking out eye-popping titles, and the Xbox "Dashboard" just got a major update last fall. (That said, I wouldn't mind a tweaked Xbox 360 console with a whisper-quiet optical drive.)

Meanwhile, the PS3—while still struggling in the sales department—feels like it's only now hitting its stride in terms of software. Consider this year's jaw-dropping "Killzone 2," which boasts some of the best graphics I've ever seen in a game, bar none, as well as the upcoming, 256-multiplayer "MAG" combat opus.

Finally, as Kotaku notes, there's a new wild card to consider: "cloud" gaming, which we've started to see with products like the Web-based "Quake Live" and the upcoming OnLive gaming console (which promises next-gen graphics over a compact "mini-console" or an entry-level laptop).

Will OnLive replace console gaming this year, or next? Maybe not, but by the time the Xbox 360 and PS3 have finally worn out their welcome, "cloud" gaming services like OnLive might be ready for prime time.

So who knows—come 2013, instead of an Xbox 720 or a PS4, maybe we'll get "Xbox Live Online" and the "PlayStation Network On-Demand"?

So, what do you think—what's your prediction for when the next generation of gaming consoles (barring the anticipated Wii HD) will arrive? Will "cloud" gaming will eventually replace console gaming—and if so, if the current generation of consoles the last?

Related:
Analyst: No New Console Cycle Before 2013 [Edge, via Kotaku]