Rumor control: Will Apple attend CES 2010 or not?

A story in the Wall Street Journal offhandedly claims that Apple will finally make the trip to Las Vegas for next year's Consumer Electronics Show, igniting a storm of controversy about what was—or wasn't—said at a recent industry dinner.

Welcome to Rumor Control. Here are the facts:

Held every January in Sin City, CES is the largest consumer technology show in the U.S., attracting thousands of manufacturers, retailers, service providers, you name it … along with hundreds of thousands of eager attendees. It's a massive show, where the likes of Sony, Panasonic, Microsoft, and Samsung trot out their hottest new wares.

Apple, however, typically skips CES. Why? Because it had another show—Macworld, also held in January—to attend instead. Indeed, Steve Jobs has rolled out some of Apple's biggest hits at Macworld, most notably the original iPhone in 2007 (which, by the way, succeeded in sucking the air out of the concurrent CES 2007).

But Apple made a surprise announcement late last year: namely, that Macworld 2009 would be Apple's last. Naturally, the "will Apple go to CES instead?" rumor mill promptly went into high gear. Respected Apple blogs such as AppleInsider and Cult of Mac claimed that their sources said yes, Apple at CES was a go; others, such as John Gruber at Daring Fireball (who has a great track record with past iPhone predictions), said otherwise.

Following so far? Good.

So, fast-forward to this week. Scene: a private dinner in San Francisco, with a clutch of tech journalists (I wasn't there myself) and Gary Shapiro of the Consumer Electronics Association (the trade organization that handles CES) in attendance. No word on what was on the menu, but those who were there say that Apple and Steve Jobs (a picture of whom just popped up on TMZ.com, by the way) were among the topics of discussion.

About a day after the dinner came this story in the Wall Street Journal, which casually notes (without citing sources) that "Apple plans to attend the show's 2010 version marking the first time in memory the Cupertino, Calif., consumer-electronics giant will be there." The story also notes that Shapiro invited Jobs to speak, "but nobody at Apple had gotten back to him."

The story provoked an angry response from dinner attendee Ryan Block at Engadget, who called the Journal piece "specious and flatly wrong," adding that "at no point did Gary even remotely imply that Apple would be present at a future CES—let alone state flatly that Apple 'will be there' in 2010." That said, Block emphasized, "I'm not saying Apple won't be there."

OK then … all sniping aside, what's the deal? Will Apple be at CES 2010 or not?

The answer (as it often is when it comes to Apple): No one outside of Apple HQ knows for sure. As AppleInsider reports, there will be a special CES pavilion for "Apple-related" manufacturers, but Apple itself isn't participating in that specific effort.

Personally, I just don't see Apple showing up in Vegas in 2010, if ever. As Apple itself has said before, the company really doesn’t need trade shows anymore; after all, anytime Apple announces a special event or town hall of its own, the tech press drops everything and comes a-runnin', and Apple doesn't have to share the stage with anyone.

But sharing the stage is the name of the game at CES, where even the massive booths from Microsoft, Samsung, and Nokia get lost in the mad shuffle. And as Block reported in his Engadget piece, Shapiro told guests at this week's dinner that were Apple to suddenly throw its hat into the CES ring (and Apple has yet to book a CES booth, according to Technologizer), organizers would only have a mere 2,000 square feet of space to spare—and that doesn't sound very Apple to me.

Of course, anything could happen, and if the likes of AppleInsider and Cult of Mac say that Apple will be at CES, well … it's worth considering. Frankly, though, I don't see it.

What do you think: Will Apple finally grace CES with its presence, or will it (again) steer clear?

Related:
Will Apple CEO Headline CES ‘10? [Wall Street Journal]
WSJ: Apple going to CES 2010. Reality: Nope. [Engadget]