Sorry folks, but the news seemed a little too good to be true and the celebrations were a bit premature: Windows 7, Microsoft's follow-up to the overwhelmingly hated Windows Vista, probably won't arrive in 2009 as was previously rumored.

Says Microsoft: Windows 7 has not even begun development, and when it does, it will take three years to finish. The Inquirer is pegging a real release date at 2011... at the earliest. (Which is especially sad, since 2010 was the formerly rumored release date.)

Of course, that would be more in line with Microsoft's more recent, glacial development cycles (remember, it took six years to ship Vista after XP came out).

So what might Microsoft do for the rest of the decade? Some are guessing that 2009 might indeed bring a major OS update, but in the form of a biggish update to Vista. Ed Bott predicts a new IE, a toned-down User Account Control, and more media features for the OS. In other words: Windows Vista Service Pack 2.

As a side note, there's also the possiblity that neither scenario is true: All of these rumors are based on leaked roadmaps and at least one "official statement" about Windows 7, but in my years of dealing with the company, it has categorically chosen to refuse comment on future products, especially on something as distant and critical as a new operating system. The latest news is all based on this blog post at WinVistaClub, and you'll have to judge its veracity for yourself. That said, can I believe it will take five or six years to ship a new version of Windows? You bet.