Blu-ray's toughest competitor: The humble DVD
Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:27AM EDT
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Blu-ray may have won the battle when it vanquished HD DVD in February, but it's still waging a war—and for now at least, it looks like a David-vs.-Goliath face-off. Who's Goliath in this scenario? Turns out it's your old friend, the DVD.
But here's where the bad news starts. Nielsen just released its most recent Blu-ray vs. DVD disc sales figures, and if you're a Blu fan, the numbers are daunting. For the week ending April 13, DVD enjoyed a whopping 95 percent of the total disc sales market, leaving a paltry five percent for Blu-ray. Ouch.
Meanwhile, industry watchers believe that any market share that Blu-ray happens to be gaining is mostly thanks to the Blu-ray-equipped PlayStation 3—and beyond that, "there's very little installed base," according to one analyst.
Part of the problem, of course, is that stand-alone Blu-ray player prices are still hovering around $300 to $400—and that's for older players like Samsung's BD-P1400 and Sony's BD-S300, which are already out of date. Meanwhile, Blu-ray prices aren't expected to drop significantly until next year.
Another hurdle for Blu-ray is that standard DVD players are ridiculously cheap. I was browsing the aisles at Best Buy the other day and stumbled on a progressive-scan DVD deck for $29—cheaper than some Blu-ray movies. I also found plenty of name-brand upscaling DVD players well south of $150.
And after all this time, I still find myself regularly having to explain the benefits of Blu-ray over DVD—and more often than not, I'm greeted by a blank stare, which turns to disbelief when I mention the $300 price tags for players.
So for now, at least, it still looking like Blu-ray has a long row to hoe—and indeed, with streaming HD movies via cable, Vudu, the Xbox Video Marketplace, and Apple TV gaining traction, Blu-ray may never take off in the way that DVD did.
What do you think? Will Blu-ray eventually succeed DVD once Blu-ray player prices drop? Or will Blu-ray have to settle for second (or third) fiddle?
Related:
Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending April 13th, 2008 [Engadget HD]
Comments on Blu-ray's toughest competitor: The humble DVD
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2 Posted by ken71880 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:49PM EDT Report Abuse
As cool as Blu-Ray is, it's not a big enough of a difference to the average movie watcher. The main advantage, besides for hi-Definition, which is hard to define to anyone, is that it comes with more special features. In other words, only people who really like to be at the high end of technology and/or really care about special features in movies and TV shows will get the Blu-Ray over DVD's. I think unless something changes, like a major price drop or DVD's suddenly not making any money (such as the fate of VHS) it will be a long time before Blu-Ray finds a major market. And that is even assuming that no new technology comes up like virtual TV or online distribution becomes huge or even (to keep with the idea of wanting to keep the shows) a flash drive like object.
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3 Posted by dejg303 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:40PM EDT Report Abuse
First we bought VCR's and million's of VHS tapes. The industry decided to make them obsolete by coming out with DVD's. How much is your VCR and your VHS tapes worth today? Now we have spent million's on DVD players and DVD movies. Is it any wonder that the public is not rushing out to purchase Blu-ray players that are 3 times the price of a good upconverting DVD player and Blu-ray movies that are twice the cost of a standard DVD movie?
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4 Posted by jirojas on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:35PM EDT Report Abuse
Long haul. It doesn't help that Netflix is gonna increase premiums for Bluray. More motivation to stay with old faithful DVD.
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5 Posted by roguea07 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 8:49PM EDT Report Abuse
As nice a Bluray is, it's not going to take off. With connection limits, hard drive space, and digital distribution on the rise, why would you get a bluray player when you can just download the high quality off of the internet?
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6 Posted by guitarmunkey05 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:14PM EDT Report Abuse
As DEJG303 said, it's very much like the VHS- DVD change. There is one CRUCIAL difference though. People changed from tapes to dvds FOR GOOD REASONS, such as... You didn't have to sit through credits, no rewinding, no fast forwarding, the tape could get mangled easily if you opened the cover, no special features, commentary, etc etc. Now, the only difference, besides a bit more special features, is mainly quality. The quality of a DVD is still pretty darn good, and like it has been said, there's now up-converting DVD players that help out the picture. After everyone has spent tens/hundreds/thousands on DVDs, there's not really a large reason to change. Take this fact, then add on the price of BR discs and BR players, and you're left with a huge population of people who aren't willing to change. I don't expect to see even 10-15% of the population switch until prices have dropped enough to where it's only a few bucks more than DVD prices. Then there's the whole getting-movies-from-your-cable/internet bit... but that's a whole different story!
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7 Posted by johnord on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:39PM EDT Report Abuse
Take this to the bank....as soon as the release date for the Blu-Ray versions of the Star Wars episodes are announced, expect a TREMENDOUS spike in Blu-Ray player sales. Mark my words.
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8 Posted by johnord on Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:39PM EDT Report Abuse
Take this to the bank....as soon as the release date for the Blu-Ray versions of the Star Wars episodes are announced, expect a TREMENDOUS spike in Blu-Ray player sales. Mark my words.
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9 Posted by maori_yelir on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:05PM EDT Report Abuse
The only place Blu-ray could find a home would be gaming and computers and even then it is going to be a challenge. Blu-ray disks are SLOW. Very slow. For gaming they are pathetic unless you are going to rip the entire game to your computer and right now with services like Steam and the fact that portable harddrives can carry just as much information AND be rewritable I don't see them taking off. The PS3 is a prime example of it's weakness. Much of the extra space alloted is wasted by double entries of files meant to speed up loading because of the slow read time of the disk. When it comes to movies Blu-ray doesn't stand a chance and in the other areas it has potential to succeed in there are issues that it is going to have to overcome. The main problem is that it's just not a very good upgrade. DVD's look fine, most people can't even tell the difference between HD and SD, the only difference is one is widescreen. DVD's were an ENORMOUS upgrade from VHS and that is why it is the reigning king. BR just doesn't offer anything new.
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10 Posted by magpagbst on Thu Sep 3, 2009 7:03PM EDT Report Abuse
as long as the price of bluray discs consistently remains north of the twenty-dollar mark . . . bluray ray will never be more than a niche item . . . the quality jump from dvd to bluray is not as dramatic as the jump in quality was from vhs to dvd . . .
1 Posted by tjken33 on Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:12PM EDT Report Abuse
Settle for second. They cant handle dvd's prices at this point in time. In both players and discs in general. But you have to understand the years of experience dvd has in the game. Give it some years. Blu Ray will eventually catch up enough to be considered as a competitor. If some thing new, better, and cheaper doesnt come out that is.....which I highly doubt